Industry Report: Solar Jobs Fell for First Time since 2010

In February, The Solar Foundation – a nonprofit solar advocacy organization – released its 2017 National Solar Jobs Census. This much-anticipated annual report uses results gleaned from a survey of thousands of solar businesses to provide a detailed overview of the state of the solar industry. The 2017 survey includes responses from 2,389 solar businesses, and it was conducted in October and November of 2017.

For the first time since the Solar Foundation started conducting its census in 2010, the solar industry contracted year-over-year. The Solar Foundation’s census found 250,271 people employed in the solar industry in November 2017, a decrease of 3.8% from the same point in 2016.

Additional key findings from the report:

The Solar Foundation chalks up the one-year decline to a rare trifecta of events that spurred many solar companies to shelve investment plans in 2017.

1) Solar investment tax credit uncertainty: In 2015, there was concern that Congress wouldn’t move to renew the solar Investment Tax Credit (ITC) program beyond 2016. This caused solar companies to rush to complete projects before the tax credit program expired. The boom carried over into 2016 given the months-long project timelines that some solar projects face. Ultimately, the ITC program was amended in December 2015 to extend beyond 2016, but the proliferation of solar projects in 2016 set the stage for an inevitable drop off in 2017.

2) Uncertainty over Section 201 case: The Solar Foundation survey was in the field when the Section 201 trade petition filed by Suniva and SolarWorld was fresh on everyone’s mind. Of those companies surveyed, 71% said that they had already felt negative effects from the case in 2017, likely due to the uncertainty that the trade case cast over the industry through much of the year.

3) Policy and economic challenges hit big solar states: California faced an unusually wet 2017 with torrential rains early in the year proving to be especially disruptive to the state’s solar industry. Changes to state policy in California and Massachusetts also dealt an acute blow to these states in 2017. The complexities around California’s new Time-of-Use rates that are designed to shift energy consumption away from peak periods put a damper on the residential PV market, while a surcharge on new net metering customers in Massachusetts had a similarly negative impact on that state’s solar industry in 2017.

In 2017, there was a perfect storm of sorts that made a downturn in the solar industry likely. The question now becomes whether or not 2018 will usher in a reprieve for the industry, or if the storm clouds linger.

Keeping an Eye on Solar Manufacturing Jobs

In January, President Trump rocked the renewables industry when he announced a 30% import tariff on solar modules and cells; a move that he claims will jump-start solar manufacturing in the United States.

The tariffs are set to gradually decline over a 4-year period, and will allow for up to 2.5 gigawatts worth of solar cells to be exempt, which is an enticing carrot that the Administration hopes will attract more investments from solar manufacturers.

As Trump put it at a signing ceremony for the tariff proclamation:

“We’ll be making solar products now much more so in the United States. Our companies have been decimated, and those companies are going to be coming back strong.”

Unfortunately for the President, an array of solar industry experts, Republican politicians, economists, and conservative groups like the Heritage Foundation were quick to condemn the solar tariffs as short-sighted and ill-advised, alleging that they will erase more solar jobs than they create over the long-run.

Hugh Bromley, a solar analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance, was one of many to throw cold water on the President’s prediction that solar manufacturing jobs are soon to come roaring back. According to Bromley:

“Anyone expecting a U.S. manufacturing renaissance as a result of these tariffs is set to be disappointed. A tariff lasting only four years and ratcheting down quickly is unlikely to attract any manufacturing investment that was not going to occur anyway.”

In the short-term, however, Trump’s message to bring back solar manufacturing jobs to the U.S. appeared to gather some quick momentum.

• Jan 25: Taiwan’s United Renewable Energy announces plans to invest $300-500 million in a PV module plant in the United States.

• Jan 29: Chinese solar manufacturer, JinkoSolar, confirms their plans to invest $410 million in a facility in Jacksonville, FL that will create 800 jobs.

• Feb 6: San Antonio-based Mission Solar announces plans to double solar module manufacturing out of its San Antonio facility.

Conversely, companies like San Jose-based SunPower directly cited the new solar tariffs as the reason for recently announced layoffs and the scrapping of previously announced expansion plans.

It is far too early to gauge how the solar tariffs will ultimately impact solar manufacturing jobs in the United States, but one thing is for certain though based on the Solar Foundation annual census; the solar manufacturing sector could use a much-needed jolt in the arm. Solar manufacturing job growth in the U.S. has leveled off in recent years.

Source: “2017 National Solar Jobs Census,” The Solar Foundation

Uncertainty Likely to Remain in 2018

The uncertainty that defined the solar industry in 2017 is unlikely to abate much in 2018.

Some of the key drivers that paint a potentially bumpier ride for the solar industry in 2018 include:

1. Tax bill fallout:

The solar industry emerged largely unscathed by the tax reform bill signed into law last December. The biggest win for the industry was that the ITC was maintained in its current form. However, the tax bill creates further uncertainty in the ever-critical solar tax equity market. For one, the reduction in the corporate income tax rate makes the tax benefits obtained from tax equity investment less attractive to potential investors. The bill also includes the Base Erosion Anti-Abuse Tax (BEAT) which targets the type of international financial institutions that make up such a large portion of the solar tax equity investor pool in the United States. Historically, tax equity comprises between 40% and 50% of financing for solar projects, and reports indicate that in just the two weeks after the tax reform bill was passed, up to $3 billion in tax equity deals for renewables were put on hold.

Click here for a good summary of the ins and outs of solar tax equity financing, and how recent changes to the tax code could stymie big solar projects.

2. Solar tariffs:

The biggest area of uncertainty for the solar industry in 2018 will of course be in how the industry adjusts to the recently implemented tariffs. The SEIA forecasts that the industry will lose almost 23,000 jobs in 2018 alone, with manufacturing jobs in interconnected sub-markets (racking systems, inverters, etc.) bearing the brunt of the pain.

On the more optimistic end of the spectrum, it’s likely that solar projects already under construction and/or those projects with modules already in inventory will cushion the blow for the industry in 2018. Look for 2019 to be when the full impacts of the solar tariffs are felt by domestic solar companies.

3. Steel tariffs and aluminum tariffs:

Apparently, the solar tariffs were just the appetizer for a President who appears hungry for a trade war. President Trump just recently imposed tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. Solar energy systems are heavily reliant on these two commodities, both of which are used in ground-mount and rooftop racking systems.

Source: AP Solar Racking

Make no mistake about it, the fact that President Trump has pursued two major tariffs that directly or indirectly affect the solar industry, just months into 2018, is a big deal. The U.S. solar industry, like most other major industries in the country, is inextricably tied to global supply chains and import/export markets. The combined “double whammy” effect of the solar tariffs and the steel and aluminum tariffs will add additional costs to solar projects that will inevitably have to be passed on to consumers.

Dan Whitten, VP of communications at SEIA, is already seeing this scenario play out, based on his interactions with solar companies. According to Whitten:

“Some of our installation companies have told us that the increase in the price of steel would further add to the costs of solar projects. I’ve been told that at a 25 percent tariff rate, it could add as much as 2 cents a watt to the cost of a utility-scale project. That is a significant added cost, especially on top of the job-killing solar tariffs.”

The last thing that the solar industry needs in 2018 is a trigger-happy President itching for a trade war, but alas, that appears to be exactly what we’ll be getting in 2018.

Prospects for Solar Industry Still Trump Coal

The unfriendly policies towards the solar industry coming out of Washington these days offer a striking juxtaposition against the pro-coal policy agenda that the Trump Administration has pursued from Day 1.

Source: Politico

The U.S. has never had a more pro-coal president since perhaps the days of Teddy Roosevelt. Even so, the significant efforts that the Trump Administration has taken to subsidize the coal industry – often at the expense of solar – have produced few meaningful results, despite rhetorical promises to rescue the dying industry.

Employment in the solar industry continues to dwarf that of the coal industry, and it’s hard to imagine any realistic scenario in which that trend flips during the lifetime of any living American.

Note: Solar figures come from National Solar Jobs Census; Coal figures come from Economic Modeling Specialists Int’l (EMSI), BLS QCEW jobs only (NAICS Codes: 212111, 212112, 213113, 324199, 423520)

Despite the recent tumult in the U.S. solar industry, the steady march towards solar energy achieving price parity with fossil fuels continues across the world. Renewable energy continues to make up a growing share of the U.S. energy portfolio, while coal’s steady decline shows no sign of letting up.

Source: Capitolweekly.net

A difficult 2017 and a potentially uncertain business climate for the industry in 2018 won’t reverse those long-term trends. They may make for a bumpy ride, however, so solar enthusiasts would be wise to buckle up.

The post As Industry Headwinds Mount, Solar Job Growth Stalls appeared first on Solar Tribune.

On January 1st of 2017, I dropped my annual predictions for the coming year in the solar industry. I kicked off Solar Trends to Watch in 2017: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly by tooting my own horn a little bit about the accuracy of my 2016 predictions. How did I do this time around? Well honestly, maybe not quite as well, but in my defense, I think we can all agree that 2017 had a LOT of surprises. At the same time, some things that were question marks at the beginning of the year remain unresolved. Let’s look at last years predictions, and you be the judge.

Lat Year’s Predictions

Solar Storage Breakthrough: “Breakthrough” may be a bit strong, but I think “significant progress” would be an understatement. New storage products hit the market on a regular basis during 2017, and a bevy of new players, including industrial giants like Lockheed-Martin, Mercedes Benz and Caterpiller, announced their intentions to get into the market. Sadly, it may be the devastation of the Puerto Rican power grid by Hurricane Rita that will push solar + storage into the mainstream.

photo: http://www.solaryna.com

Trump Will Embrace Solar: Okay, hear me out on this one. Yes, I know that this prediction seems like a long-shot… maybe even the result of a moment of madness. Yes, I pointed out that Elon Musk was going to be a presidential technical advisor, and that Musk bailed as soon as Trump dumped the Paris Climate agreement. But this might still happen. We have yet to see what decision Trump will make on the Suniva case, and although his anti-free-trade and anti-China rhetoric would lead one to believe that he will grant the request for an embargo, I honestly think that he could go either way.
I do think that solar will continue to grow in the next four years, and at some point, Republicans will see that. I predicted that he would claim victory for new solar business by the end of his first term, and I’m going to wait a full three years before admitting defeat on this one.

Solar Will Build Local Economies: This one was a no-brainer. Despite slower growth in 2017, the solar industry has tripled solar installation jobs across the country in the last six years, increased property values, increased local tax revenues and kept dollars circulating in communities. “With a near tripling of solar jobs since 2010, the solar industry is an American success story that has created hundreds of thousands of well-paying jobs,” said Andrea Luecke, President and Executive Director of The Solar Foundation.

Global Solar Growth Will Slow: Unfortunately, I was right about this one as well. Solar installations slowed in 2017, both in the US and globally. The market has run hot for several years now, and as the industry matures, growth inevitably slows. In some areas, aging infrastructure is reaching its capacity for handling new solar generation.

Panel Prices May Go Too Low: It wasn’t a stretch to predict that panel prices would drop again in 2017, and it was no surprise to anyone when they did. But have they fallen TOO low? For manufacturers, the answer is yes. Trina and other solar panel makers are canceling the construction of new manufacturing facilities. For American installers, it is a mixed blessing…lower panel prices mean offering customers more affordable systems, but it also means a constant race to the bottom on the margins.

Tesla Will Have A Tough Year: I’m going to stick by this prediction, although you wouldn’t know it from the constant hype around everything that Elon Musk touches. Hey, I’m an as much of an Elon fan-boy as you will find, but the fact is, Solar City’s business has dwindled since being acquired by Tesla, the Solar Roof is AWOL, and the Powerwall is not exactly blowing up the market. Now, word on the street is that the Gigafactory is causing a global cylindrical battery shortage. Still, customers seem to be willing to “pay it forward,” and for now, all the balls remain in the air.

More ALEC Anti-Solar Lobbying: As I said last year, behind virtually all of the anti-solar legislative action happening in states across the country is the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC). The organization has fought a state-by-state battle against rooftop solar, and that battle continues. There is an interesting twist in the story though- both ALEC and the conservative Heritage Foundation have come out against the tariffs requested in the Suniva/SolarWorld case. I think the message here is that they aren’t opposed to solar–they just want to make sure that large energy companies stay in control of it.

So, how did I do? Not terrible, I think. But what were the big solar stories that I did not see coming in 2017? There were a bunch.

Suniva/SolarWorld Case

Troubled American solar cell manufacturers Suniva and SolarWorld went to the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) looking for the relief because Chinese manufacturers of solar panels have flooded American markets with panels at prices too low for U.S. manufacturers to compete. Suniva filed a petition with the Trade Commission seeking “… a recommendation to the President of four years of relief of an initial duty rate on cells of $0.40/watt, along with an initial floor price on modules of $0.78/watt. Petitioner also seeks other equitable remedies that will effectively assist the domestic industry to make a positive adjustment to import competition. The FTC has found in Suniva/SolarWorld’s favor, and we are waiting to hear if President Trump will put the tariffs to in place.

World’s Largest Lithium-Ion Storage Facility

Photo by SDG&E

San Diego Gas & Electric, in partnership with the Virginia-based company AES Energy Storage, unveiled the largest lithium-ion energy storage installation in the world this year. The 30 megawatt (MW) facility contains 400,000 AES Advancion® batteries, similar to ones found in electric vehicles. The batteries are installed in nearly 20,000 modules and placed in 24 containers. Also, the Escondido facility is alleged to be 50 percent larger than the next-largest such installation.

Solar Incentives Survive the Tax Bill

The House version of the tax bill took aim at incentives for solar, wind and electric vehicle, but thankfully, Republican renewable energy supporters in the Senate prevailed. The House bill also would have ended a tax credit for investment in solar power for commercial properties and large solar farms. More immediately, the House bill proposed changes to eligibility rules that would make it harder for solar farm investors to claim the credit in a given year. In the end, the permanent 10 percent tax credit survived, and the eligibility criteria remained the same.

Solar Plays A Major Role In Puerto Rico’s Recovery

The collapse of the Puerto Rican electrical grid is a textbook example of what happens when a monopoly utility lets its infrastructure fall apart. In July, even before hurricane Maria struck the island, the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) defaulted on a 2014 deal to restructure its debt. Everything PREPA could do wrong, they have done wrong. Puerto Ricans have been paying an insanely high price for low-quality service for years, and now, they are paying the ultimate price. The damage across the island is estimated at over $95 Billion, and in the wake of the storm, 3.4 Million people were without electricity. After Maria, replacing Puerto Rico’s shattered power grid with solar micro-grids is a no-brainer, and solar companies from across the world are stepping up.

What Lies Ahead?

I have to admit, my crystal ball is cloudy concerning 2018. There are just SO many variables that could effect where we are heading in the new year. I expect that we will see installations in the US and Europe continue to flatten out as transmission issues continue to be a problem. President Trump could single-handedly increase the chilling effect on the solar market in the U.S. by imposing a tariff on Chinese solar panels. State legislature’s will continue to be heavily lobbied by big-money energy companies to shut out indie rooftop solar. It could be a rough year.

On the other hand, Trump may chose not to impose tariffs. this could send a strong signal to the industry and reduce uncertainty. Battery storage is growing fast, and improvements in that sector may reduce grid-related growth issues. Microgrids continue to mature. Equipment efficiency increases, technology prices drop, and price parity with fossil fuels illustrates that solar is a mature industry. Against the odds, Solar is going to continue to compete and capture a growing market-share. For that, we can all be thankful.

The post Solar Trends: 2017 Year In Review appeared first on Solar Tribune.

A new report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the US added only 156,000 jobs in August, missing favourable economic predictions. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3%, and wages remain stagnant. What role is the energy sector, and solar in particular, playing in the current job numbers?

Last labor day, I reported on the decline in coal mining jobs and the possibility of moving workers in the energy sector toward the new, clean energy industry of solar. I looked at a report by two professors from Michigan Technological University entitled  “Retraining Investment for U.S. Transition from Coal to Solar Photovoltaic Employment.” authored by Edward P. Louie and Joshua M. Pearce, the report found that “… a relatively minor investment ($180 million to $1.8 billion, based on best and worst case scenarios) in retraining would allow the vast majority of U.S. coal workers to switch to solar-related positions.”  Well, a lot has happened over the last year, not least of all the election of Donald J. Trump, a man who claims to love the coal industry.

“In Pennsylvania, two weeks ago, they opened a mine, the first mine that was opened in decades….Well, we picked up 45,000 mining jobs in a very short period of time,” Trump said during an event pegged to American manufacturing. “Everybody was saying, ‘Well, you won’t get any mining jobs,’ we picked up 45,000 mining jobs. Well, the miners are very happy with Trump and with Pence, and we’re very proud of that.”

The President’s statement is simply false.

The president made this claim in July. It sounds like big job news indeed, but sadly, for coal miners, the president’s statement is simply not true.The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates there are roughly 50,700 coal mining jobs nationwide. There has been an increase since the president was elected, though. 2,000 is the correct number. For a little perspective- eight times more Americans work at Home Depot than in the coal industry.

Meanwhile, more accurate data comes to us by way of The 2017 U.S. Energy and Employment Report (USEER) from the US Department of Energy. The report finds that the Traditional Energy and Energy Efficiency sectors today employ approximately 6.4 million Americans. These sectors increased in 2016 by just under 5 percent, adding over 300,000 net new jobs, roughly 14% of all those created in the country. How those jobs break down by sector is eye-opening.

The solar industry employs just under 374,000 people, while coal, gas and oil power generation combined had a workforce of slightly more than 187,000. Unfortunately for the president, the numbers simply do not bear out his claims that new jobs are happening in the coal industry. The truth is, one out of every 50 new jobs created in the United States last was in the solar industry.

Looking for a job in the Energy Industry? Hint: Don’t become a coal miner.

“With a near tripling of solar jobs since 2010, the solar industry is an American success story that has created hundreds of thousands of well-paying jobs,” said Andrea Luecke, President and Executive Director of The Solar Foundation. “In 2016, we saw a dramatic increase in the solar workforce across the nation, thanks to a rapid decrease in the cost of solar panels…”

According to the Solar Foundation’s research, 65 percent of solar employers reported that difficulty finding qualified workers led to increased costs, while 68 percent said it impacts their ability to grow. There simply aren’t enough properly trained workers to fill all of the “well-paying jobs” that Luecke refers to. All indicators are that the solar industry is going to continue to add new jobs above the pace of other industries into the near future.

And what about wages? As I mentioned, new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistic show flat wages across much of the country. Wages are the one area where coal miners have the advantage over solar installers. The average hourly wage for coal miners is $35 an hour, compared to $25 for solar installers. Veteran coal miners may be reluctant to switch careers, but for younger workers the choice is clear. The better, safer, healthier working conditions in a growing industry make solar a far more attractive career path than that offered by coal, where ever-increasing automation makes it less and less likely that coal mining jobs will be available in the future. In a recent New York Times article, Janice Bellace, an industrial relations expert at the Wharton School… “voiced alarm that the Trump administration seems far more concerned about the loss of several thousand coal jobs than what she sees as a far bigger threat: the prospect that automation, artificial intelligence and robots, such as self-driving cars and trucks, will wipe out millions of jobs.”Ms. Bellace said:

“One would hope the government would be looking at this very closely so we are prepared for the big changes ahead.”

Suniva and SolarWorld: Saving American companies may cost jobs

As we have reported here at Solar Tribune, bankrupt American solar cell manufacturer Suniva as well as SolarWorld are looking for the relief from the Federal Trade Commission and the Trump administration from Chinese manufacturers of solar panels who have flooded American markets with panels at prices too low for U.S. manufacturers to compete. Suniva filed a petition with the Trade Commission seeking “… a recommendation to the President of four years of relief of an initial duty rate on cells of $0.40/watt, along with an initial floor price on modules of $0.78/watt.”

Economic analysis by law firm Mayer Brown on behalf of Suniva and SolarWorld finds that imposing new tariffs on solar products made outside of America will result in a net increase of at least 114,800 across all segments of the U.S. solar industry. However, only those on the payroll of the litigants actually believe this bit of fiction.

According to an emailed statement by Abigail Ross Hopper, president and CEO of the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA):

“The notion that doubling the price of solar panels would somehow increase demand and create jobs is preposterous. Additionally, SEIA has spoken with dozens of manufacturers in the supply chain who ardently oppose this petition because the projected decline in demand will force them to lay off workers. SEIA’s members know what impact this will have on their ability to produce jobs; companies working in the solar industry today have been clear that Suniva’s sought-after remedy will be devastating to the American solar industry.”

President Trump has repeatedly stated that he wants to use tariffs against the Chinese and others to encourage American manufacturing. It would come as no surprise to see the President take action in the case that would fulfill his promise to American manufacturers, while slamming the brakes on solar, seriously damaging an industry he has always seen as an enemy. We can only hope that the President’s economic advisors will prevent him from making a decision that could cost thousands of jobs.

Hurricanes, Infrastructure, Climate Change and Jobs

The recent destruction of Texas refineries by Hurricane Harvey is just one example of the need for new and modernized energy infrastructure in the US. Whether you believe that the unprecedented destruction is the result of rising sea levels due to climate change, short-sighted zoning policies or lack of corporate responsibility, the fact remains that the system for managing energy resources has simply become outdated, and in some cases, hazardous to humans as well as the environment. It’s time to make radical changes. Disrupting the status quo can be difficult for some aging industries to cope with, but one of the pluses is the new opportunities that change can bring to workers.

Like it or not, there is no going back in time, and the era of fossil fuels is coming to an end. So is the era of black lung, mine collapses, and oil spills. Distributed generation of solar reduces the need for expanded transmission lines and puts workers and technology in direct contact with the consumers. While automation may reduce the need for workers on the factory floor, the installation, management, and maintenance of electrical generation through clean, locally produced solar will continue to grow, powering the American economy into the future.

The post The Labor Market, The Energy Market, and America’s Future appeared first on Solar Tribune.

China Revolves Around the Sun

In the 1990s, China was nursing a nascent rural-oriented solar program that showed little potential to be scaled up in any meaningful way. Fast forward 20-some years later and China has entrenched itself as the preeminent global leader in the solar energy market.

In 2016 alone, China’s solar capacity more than doubled to 78 gigawatts, dwarfing the capacity of every other country in the world. China was also able to lay claim to five of the world’s six largest solar-module manufacturing firms in 2016.

China further flexed their solar energy muscle just this summer with the unveiling of the world’s largest floating solar farm, a 40 MW example of China’s increasingly sophisticated solar energy capabilities. The farm’s 160,000 solar panels float atop a lake that was formed after the collapse of a coal mine – an appropriate piece of symbolism for a country redoubling its efforts to turn the page on coal.

 
China’s Solar Sugar Rush

China’s position atop the world’s solar market makes for good headlines, but the devil is in the details.

The glut of Chinese product on the market in recent years has been fueled in part by attractive subsidies being doled out by the state government. These subsidies were the result of growing political pressure to wean the country off of coal power after chronic air pollution became a public health crisis in some parts of the country.

(Photo Source: BBC)

Attractive solar subsidies, such as feed-in-tariffs, allowed China to quickly get drunk off solar, but also led to the same sort of supply and demand imbalance that the country has become notorious for in other sectors of its economy. The result? A sugar rush that could not be sustained forever.

Facing billions ($USD) in outstanding financial commitments to solar developers and an overabundance of new solar farms that weren’t even being connected to the grid in some cases, the state government intervened. Last year, China announced their plans to cut tariff rates by July 1, 2016 in an effort to bring some normalcy back to the market. The move ended up having the opposite effect as solar installers rushed to take advantage of the subsidies before the July 1 cut date, compounding the country’s solar supply/demand problem.

U.S. Solar Manufacturers Feel the Pinch

To compensate for government subsidy cuts, Chinese solar panel manufacturers have slashed prices by more than a quarter from their 2016 highs, and when you control so much of the global market, such a price cut has a profound ripple effect.

The move caused global prices for solar panels to plummet, which is good news for U.S. consumers, but spelled doom for many U.S. solar manufacturers unable to compete in such an environment. A proverbial graveyard of bankrupt or downsizing U.S.-based solar manufacturers has popped up in just the last several months alone.

(Photo Source: PV Magazine)

Announced layoffs, since last year of American solar workers from companies like First Solar, Mission Solar, SolarWorld, Suniva, SunPower, and Sungevity total well into the thousands.

Suniva Trade Case and the Trump Wildcard

President Donald Trump isn’t a man with well-established policy positions, but he has made a few things abundantly clear in his brief tenure as a politician; 1) China is benefiting from unfair trade practices that come at the expense of U.S. manufacturers, and 2) he has no interest in making renewable energy a priority of his administration.

When it comes to domestic solar energy policy, these positions are seemingly in conflict and the pending Section 201 trade petition filed by Suniva with the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) sets up a collision course for the U.S. and China that could add even more volatility to a global solar market in need of some stability.

Suniva filed their petition with the ITC on the grounds that China has so flooded the market with solar products being exported to the United States that domestic companies like Suniva cannot fairly compete. The ITC expects to render a decision in September, with a formal report submitted to Trump in November.

And that’s where things get interesting.

(Photo Source: CNN Money)

If the ITC finds that an American industry has been seriously injured in a Section 201 case, it will be up to the President of the United States to administer appropriate penalties. Given Trump’s aggressive rhetoric denouncing Chinese trade practices, the hope from Suniva is that he will levy harsh penalties and seek to make an example out of China.

The tea leaves indicate that the Trump Administration may be readying to do just that.

Just last month, the United States notified the World Trade Organization (WTO) that it is considering slapping emergency tariffs or quotas on imported solar cells from China, as part of a separate safeguard investigation into crystalline silicon PV cells that was filed on Suniva’s behalf. The Obama Administration took similar action in 2012 when it levied tariffs ranging from 2.9% to 4.8% on Chinese silicon solar cell imports, which comparatively speaking, is peanuts compared to the possible 20% tariff being considered by the Trump Administration.

More Ripple Effects on the Horizon?

Interestingly enough, many solar energy stakeholders, like the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), have forcefully come out against Suniva’s ITC petition, fearing that a decision in Suniva’s favor would trigger a global solar trade war with few winners.

(Photo Source: Business Around the Clock)

SEIA opposes the petition on the grounds that a ‘win’ for Suniva would be counterproductive and disrupt the global supply chain in a manner that would only further stack the deck against U.S. solar manufacturers.

In a recent interview with PV Magazine SEIA CEO, Abigail Hopper, laid out the rationale for the trade group’s opposition, stating in part:

“We knew early on that this filing could result in the loss of tens of thousands of American jobs as Suniva’s requested trade remedy would significantly raise the price of PV panels in the United States. This would jeopardize demand for both rooftop and large-scale solar projects and cause great uncertainty in project finance. I’m not being an alarmist when I say this could be devastating to the U.S. solar industry.”

The pending Suniva case notwithstanding, China is not letting off the gas anytime soon when it comes to their long-term commitment to solar energy. Earlier this year the Chinese government made a vow to invest $361 billion into renewables by the end of 2020.

China’s dominance in the global solar market, coupled with their commitment to invest heavily in renewables, and the advantageous position they now find themselves in after the U.S. dropped out of the Paris climate accord, are enough to make any solar loving red-blooded American queasy.

I don’t pretend to know all the answers about how we can make U.S. solar great again, but I hope the Trump Administration knows what they’re doing. The U.S. solar industry can ill-afford to cede any more ground to China.

Feature photo credit: Carlos Barria

The post As China’s Solar Ambitions Grow, U.S. Plots Next Move appeared first on Solar Tribune.

The Kentucky Coal Mining Museum might seem like the last place in America that would go solar but the reality is, people who really understand the energy industry understand the importance of new technology.

“It is a little ironic,” Brandon Robinson, communications director at Southeast Kentucky Community and Technical College, which owns the museum, told WYMT. “But you know, coal and solar and all the different energy sources work hand-in-hand. And, of course, coal is still king around here.”

“We believe that this project will help save at least eight to ten thousand dollars off the energy costs on this building alone, so it’s a very worthy effort and it’s going to save the college money in the long run,” said Robinson.

The museum is located in the small town of Benham,  Kentucky, in Harlan County. In the 2016 election, Harlan County voted overwhelmingly for Donald Trump, based on his promises to bring back coal jobs to the region. Economists and energy experts agree that the campaign promise will be a very hard one for the President to keep, but in the meantime, new solar is being installed, even there in the heart of coal country. The project includes 20 solar panels installed by Bluegrass Solar, based in Whitesburg.

photo: Bluegrass Solar

Tre Sexton, owner of Bluegrass Solar told WYMT that the system would cost around $17,000 or $20,000 — but the system would pay itself off within five to seven years. “I think everybody knows when we’re talking about attractions like this — these high-volume, low-traffic municipal attractions — something has got to give, to keep their expenses down.”

Kentucky is not a state whose legislature has been particularly supportive of the solar industry. It is one of only 13 states that has no stated goal for increasing renewable energy. However, this isn’t stopping significant renewable energy investment in the state.  L’Oreal Cosmetics largest production facility located in Northern Kentucky is in the process of installing the state’s largest solar array, 1.5 MW. Built in partnership with Scenic Hill Solar, the Florence project will consist of approximately 5,000 solar panels. The array is projected to cut CO2 emissions in Kentucky by approximately 1,195 metric tons per year, equivalent to eliminating over 2.8 million miles traveled by passenger cars per year, according to EPA Greenhouse Gas Equivalencies.

GM is also committing to solar in Kentucky. The auto giant installed am 850-kilowatt solar array at it’s Bowling Green Corvette facility.  The array is the largest solar installation by any automaker in Kentucky. The mechanism will generate 1.2 million kilowatt hours of energy annually — enough to produce about 850 Corvettes, a GM news release noted near the time of the project’s groundbreaking late last year.

Tough times may be ahead for residential and small business solar in Kentucky, though. State Senator Jared Carpenter introduced SB 214 earlier this spring. The bill, one of a plethora of ALEC and energy industry lobbyist written bills that have popped up in state legislatures across the nation, is designed to gut uniform net metering rules and throw up roadblocks for new indie solar projects. Although the bill may be dead for this legislative session, chances are that legislators like Carpenter who receive large campaign contributions from the utility industry will be back next year to try again.

Fortunately, forward-thinking employers are not waiting for legislators like Carpenter to catch up with current energy industry trends. L’Oreal, GM, and now even the Kentucky Coal Mining Museum are leading the way to new, clean, safe solar jobs and relegating the dirty and dangerous coal mining industry to history, where it belongs.

Facts on the Kentucky Solar Industry

From the Solar Energy Industry Association

• 1.1 megawatts (MW) of solar capacity were installed in Kentucky in 2015, a 71% increase over 2014.  Kentucky ranks 42nd nationally in 2015 installed solar capacity.
• Of the solar capacity installed in Kentucky in 2015, 907 kW were residential and 223 kW were commercial.
• The 9.5 MW of solar energy currently installed in Kentucky ranks the state 37th in the country in installed solar capacity.  There is enough solar energy installed in the state to power 900 homes.
• In 2015, $4 million was invested on solar installations in Kentucky.
• Average installed residential and commercial photovoltaic system prices have dropped steadily across the nation— by 6% from last year and 48% from 2010.

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“Renewable energy use translates to bottom-line benefits such as lower and more stable energy costs for GM in the long term. With more than 67 megawatts of solar housed at 24 facilities across the globe, we see the power of sunshine as an integral part of becoming a more sustainable company.”

— Rob Threlkeld, Global Manager of Renewable Energy at General Motors

Is Rob Threlkeld looking for solar to play a part in GM’s future growth? You can bet he is. Solar is becoming increasingly integrated into the business plans for companies both large and small, and you can also be sure that Threlkeld isn’t only talking about environmental sustainability.  For those who are watching current trends in the energy industry, the benefits of solar are pretty obvious, from environmental AND financial perspectives.

One big part sunny spot that solar is creating in the economy is job growth. The Solar Foundation’s latest National Solar Jobs Census is out, and the numbers are looking good for job growth in the solar sector. The Foundation’s seventh annual update on current employment in the U.S. solar industry found that employment increased by over 51,000 workers, a 25 percent increase over 2015.

Highlights from Solar Jobs Census 2016:

• One out of every 50 new jobs added in the United States in 2016 was created by the solar industry, representing 2% percent of all new jobs.
• Solar jobs in the United States have increased at least 20 percent per year for the past four years, and jobs have nearly tripled since the first Solar Jobs Census was released in 2010.
• Over the next 12 months, employers surveyed expect to see total solar industry employment increase by 10 percent to 286,335 solar workers.
• In 2016, the five states with the most solar jobs were California, Massachusetts, Texas, Nevada, and Florida.

“With a near tripling of solar jobs since 2010, the solar industry is an American success story that has created hundreds of thousands of well-paying jobs,” said Andrea Luecke, President and Executive Director of The Solar Foundation. “In 2016, we saw a dramatic increase in the solar workforce across the nation, thanks to a rapid decrease in the cost of solar panels and unprecedented consumer demand for solar installations. More than ever, it’s clear that solar energy is a low-cost, reliable, super-abundant American energy source that is driving economic growth, strengthening businesses, and making our cities smarter and more resilient.”

Nine percent of solar workers nationwide are veterans, compared to 7 percent in the overall U.S. workforce. Census 2016 also found that the percentage of solar workers who are women increased from 24 percent in 2015 to 28 percent in 2016, the percentage of African-American solar workers increased from 5 percent to 7 percent, and the percentage of Latino/Hispanic solar workers increased from 11 percent to 17 percent.

The Solar Foundation’s map of solar jobs is a graphic illustration of where the jobs are concentrated. The states of the South with the best solar resources generally show strong growth, but also the highly populated states of the Northeast coastal region. It’s no surprise that the states with the strongest growth are also generally those with the strongest state incentives programs for solar. With a changing political climate and demand for new solar leveling a bit this year, will the job growth continue?

According to the report, “Given the projected slowdown in 2017 employment growth to 10%, we expect less pressure on hiring nationally, although select states could experience difficulties. Hiring difficulty is also influenced by hiring in the related trades. If the economy—and specifically construction—remains strong, the solar industry will experience greater competition for workers, making it more difficult to hire, driving up wages and installation soft costs.”

However, many people are nervous about the recently posted “An America First Energy Plan” posted at the Whitehouse website. The President’s new plan says nothing about the boom in wind, solar, and energy efficiency that is creating millions of jobs, saving billions of dollars, and cutting pollution. Will the new administration’s fixation on outdated energy technology put the brakes on solar job growth?

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Environmental Research Scientists at Lancaster University and the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology recently released Solar park microclimate and vegetation management effects on grassland carbon cycling which appears in the latest edition of the journal Environmental Research Letters. Researchers monitored a large solar park near Swindon for a year. Swindon is located in Wiltshire, South West England, 70 miles west of London. The report describes the findings of the first detailed study of the impact of solar parks on the environment, providing vital information for establishing land management best practices at the ever-growing numbers of central-station solar facilities.

The report’s authors, Alona Armstrong, Nicholas J Ostle and Jeanette Whitaker write that “Solar parks may have consequences for microclimate, C cycling, biodiversity, water, soil erosion, air quality and ecosystem energy balances…These impacts may occur at the regional scale, but the physical presence of PV arrays may also promote within solar park variation in climate and ecosystem function. The physical presence of solar parks will impact solar radiation fluxes (and thus temperature), wind speed and turbulence (and thus the exchange of biogenic gases and water vapour) and the distribution of precipitation within the solar park. Given the climate regulation of ecosystem processes, resolving the impacts of PV arrays on the soil and near surface climate within solar parks is essential. The spatial and temporal dynamics of solar park-induced microclimates on ecosystem processes is likely to be different to projected climate change…Further, solar park management, in particular that relating to the vegetation (i.e. seeding, mowing, grazing and fertiliser addition), will be a strong determinant of ecosystem response.”

Some of the results were unsurprising, for instance, they found that soil and air temperatures in the areas shaded by the solar panels were significantly cooler than in the areas between rows which received direct sunlight. Cooling of as much as 5 degrees Centigrade under the panels during the summer was recorded, with effects varying depending on time of day and time of year.  On the other hand, the results of studying the vegetation under the arrays brought more unexpected results.  According to the study;  “The PCA-GLM (Principal Component Analysis–Generalized Linear Model) results indicated that vegetation metrics and wind speed (which governs CO2 exchange between the leaf and atmosphere…) were more strongly correlated with CO2 fluxes than climate or soil factors. This indicates the pivotal role of vegetation, and thus the importance of vegetation management in the shorter term and vegetation change in response to the microclimate induced by the PV arrays in the longer term, in influencing C cycling at solar parks.”

The report concludes that; “Land use change for energy generation is accelerating, with the growth of solar parks predicted to continue globally. The effects of this growing land use change on plant–soil processes, which underpin key ecosystem services, is poorly understood. In this study we show that PV arrays can cause both seasonal and diurnal variation in the ground-level microclimate to a magnitude known to affect terrestrial C cycling. We also observed significant differences in above-ground biomass, plant diversity and ecosystem CO2 fluxes which were associated with the vegetation management and microclimate. Given the quantifiable differences in plant–soil C cycling presented here, we argue that there is a critical need for a systematic assessment of the impact of solar parks on ecosystem functioning and the potential to exploit the induced-microclimate effects for co-benefits. For example, the production of crops under PV arrays in locations where solar radiation receipts currently prevent it. Solar parks contribute to climate change mitigation by providing low carbon energy, but the wider environmental costs and benefits need to be taken into account, to ensure they are deployed sustainably.”

What the authors are telling us, is that under current mono-crop conditions, the areas under solar parks (as they are known in the UK) or solar farms are actually losing their ability to capture and store carbon. However, by taking the researchers advice and varying design and plant species, the shaded areas might actually have the potential to increase carbon capture. Depending on the local microclimate, there may be huge potential to grow carbon sinking plants in the cooler, shadier areas under the solar array. For instance, a Swedish report discovered that in the northern  boreal forests is captured by fungus, rather than the trees themselves. Another report from Researchers from the University of Texas, Boston University and the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute ran computer models on data from more than 200 soil profiles from around the world. They found that soils dominated by ecto- and ericoid mycorrhizal (EEM) fungi contain as much as 70% more carbon than soils dominated by arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi.

As we can see, fungi play an important role in the carbon cycle, the biogeochemical process by which carbon is taken from the air and captured in the soil. Globally, soil is the biggest single terrestrial reservoir of carbon, far more than the amount of carbon contained in living things and in the atmosphere combined. And where do fungi prefer to grow?  In cooler, shadier areas.

By adding diversity to the ecosystems surrounding large, central station solar arrays, it may be possible for system designers to utilize the types of concepts made popular in permaculture to create solar farms that are truly farms… producing not only energy, but also an array of perennial crops that are both useful in the short term as well as beneficial in the fight against climate change.

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The non-profit research group The Solar Foundation (TSF), released its California Solar Jobs Census 2014 this week, and news was good for the California solar job market. The new report found that the solar industry employed 54,690 people in California in 2014, nearly 7,500 solar jobs more than the previous year. This represents 15.8 percent growth in California solar industry employment since November 2013. Additionally, California solar employment grew 10 times faster than overall employment in the state during the same period.

“California’s solar industry has once again proven to be a powerful engine of economic growth and job creation,” said Andrea Luecke, President and Executive Director of The Solar Foundation. “California solar jobs have grown quite rapidly over the last few years, and the solar industry is continuing to attract highly-skilled, well-paid professionals. That growth is putting people back to work and strengthening California’s diverse economy.”

“For decades, our state has been on the cutting edge of clean energy innovations and solar deployment,” said California Lt. Governor Gavin Newsom. “We’re very proud that we continue to be first in the nation in solar jobs – and to see 16% solar job growth in 2014 reaffirms our leadership in this industry.”

The full National Solar Jobs Census and State Solar Jobs Census reports with district level jobs for California, Arizona, Georgia, Maryland, Texas and New York are available at www.TSFcensus.org. Job numbers and rankings of economic indicators for all 50 states are available in The Solar Foundation’s updated State Solar Jobs Map at www.SolarStates.org.

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That’s ten times faster than the national average employment growth rate of 1.9 percent between September 2012 and November 2013.

“The solar industry’s job-creating power is clear,” said Andrea Luecke, Executive Director and President of The Solar Foundation. “The industry has grown an astounding 53 percent in the last four years alone, adding nearly 50,000 jobs.”

To paint an even more positive picture, another 22,000 jobs are anticipated in the coming year, thanks to strong demand and supportive policies.

Credit: Solar Job Census 2013

“Tens of thousands of new living-wage jobs have been created over the past year thanks to plunging solar technology costs, increasing consumer demand, and supportive government policies,” said Amit Ronen, Director of The George Washington University Solar Institute, which supported the report, along with BW Research Partnership.

“As the nation’s fastest growing energy source, we expect the solar industry will continue to generate robust job growth for at least the next decade,” Ronen continued.

The data, collected from more than 2,080 solar firms, confirms that whilst other energy generation sectors suffered a decline in job numbers (fossil fuels dropping almost 9 percent), opportunities and wages climbed higher in solar, up to between $20 and $23.63 per hour.

“The study shows both aggressive hiring and clear optimism among US solar companies,” said Philip Jordan, Vice President at BW Research Partnership. “We also found higher than average employment of veterans in the solar industry, a sign that their high-tech skills are valued in this sector.”

Overall, the report suggests an optimistic environment for the solar industry in the United States. A state-by-state breakdown is expected in February.

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The Index, compiled by the Ecotech Institute, found that over 8,000 of these jobs were in the solar industry. The job postings included positions for solar sales representatives, installers and project managers.

“The Clean Jobs Index shows that there is tremendous job growth in the cleantech sector and signs of positive momentum on the state level for environmental factors that can affect us all,” said Kyle Crider, Ecotech Institute’s Program Chair and Manager of Environmental Operations.

The Clean Jobs Index also provides data on other aspects of cleantech across all 50 states, including alternative fueling stations, LEED projects, total energy consumption, energy efficiency, green pricing, net metering and state incentives.

Credit: Clean Jobs Index

“When we see increases in LEED certification, we know businesses are making sustainable decisions; when we see an increase in alternative fueling stations, we know people are driving demand for greener forms of transportation,” Crider continued. “These are powerful indicators.”

According to the Index, 749,197 clean jobs were posted in the first quarter of 2013, and Alabama, Iowa, Michigan, Mississippi, Nebraska, Vermont and West Virginia showed the fastest quarter-on-quarter growth for clean job postings.

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The statistics, gathered by the DOE’s Energy Information Administration (EIA), show that US solar companies have shipped enough modules to generate 3.77 GW of power, an increase of over 1GW from the 2.64 GW shipped in 2010. This rise is indicative of a spike in PV demand at the end of 2011, before subsidies and tax breaks for PV were phased out.

According to the EIA, the growth was partly propelled by slumping prices of PV cells and modules caused by a competitive market, as well as a rush to ship modules and start projects before the expiration of the solar Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and the 1603 Treasury Program, which expired at the end of 2011.

But the EIA claims that employment in the sector has decreased by nearly 10 percent to just under 15,800 reflective of the tough global market.

A solar farm at Nellis Air Force Base in Nevada. Photo Credit: Suntech

Meanwhile, the European Photovoltaics Industry Association (EPIA) claims that global PV installations grew at a much faster rate than did US shipments over the same period – according to EPIA data, PV shipments increased by 76 percent, with a power output that swelled from 16.8 GW in 2010 to 29.7 GW in 2011.

US imports of PV modules reached 3.32 GW in 2011, with more than half coming from China, 21 percent from the Philippines, and 16 percent from Malaysia.

At the same time, exports amounted to only 0.79 GW, while Germany, the largest market for photovoltaics, accounted for one-fifth of exports, ahead of Canada, France, Italy and India.

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The “National Solar Jobs Census 2011: A Review of the U.S. Solar Workforce” was conducted by The Solar Foundation, Green LMI (a division of BW Research Partnership) and Cornell University. The study measured employment along the solar value chain – including installation, wholesale trade, manufacturing, utilities, and more – between August 2010 and August 2011.

Photo Credit: The Solar Foundation

The preliminary data shows there are 100,237 Americans working in the U.S. solar industry, with 6,735 new workers across all 50 states in the past year.

This growth rate is significantly higher than the job growth rate for the economy overall, which was at a dismal 0.7 percent for the same period. Meanwhile, the fossil fuel electric generation industry lost two percent of its workforce.

“The U.S. solar industry is creating jobs at a far greater pace than the economy as a whole,” said Andrea Luecke, executive director of The Solar Foundation. “The National Solar Jobs Census series provides a definitive measure of the U.S. solar workforce and its growth over time. It proves where smart solar energy policies are having the most impact both in terms of states and across the vast solar supply chain.”

The full report will be available at the Solar Power International ‘11 conference in Dallas on October 17.

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