Current moves on the part of utilities to centralize solar with large “solar farms” notwithstanding, solar will be considered marginal until it becomes dispatchable. That is, it needs to be available “on demand,” day or night, rain or shine, 24/7.

Flow Batteries image: pv magazine

A recent report from Deutsche Bank (DB) recently predicted that energy storage will reach a competitive price point in as little as five years. Energy storage, which DB calls the “missing link of solar adoption” says that competitive batteries will become the “killer app” and the “holy grail” of solar penetration.

“Using conservative assumptions and no incentives, our model indicates that the incremental cost of storage will decrease from ~14c/kWh today to ~2c/kWh within the next five years,” the report says. “When overall system cost decreases are considered, we believe solar + batteries will be a clear financial choice in mature solar markets in the future.”

The report points out that “Commercial customers are often subject to demand based charges, which can account for as much as half of the electric bill in some months… We think companies with differentiated battery solutions coupled with intelligent software and predictive analytics that work with the grid to avoid these charges and smooth electric demand will pave the way for mass adoption.”

One such project that was recently announced is a recent announcement by Swiss energy storage start-up Alevo Group that they will be entering into partnership with Customized Energy Solutions (CES) to deploy 200 MW of its lithium-ion-based battery systems in an undisclosed wholesale energy market in the United States.

The distributed storage projects are aimed at providing frequency regulation services through CES, which works with eight independent systems operators in North America. The battery storage projects will help the unnamed grid operator integrate renewable energy resources, including solar, into the grid. The installations are planned for the second half of 2015, a spokesman for Alevo told PV Magazine recently.

Another promising energy storage project is being launched by ViZn Energy Systems in partnership with LFC Capital. Their program will offer commercial property owners solar PV systems combined with energy storage. The availability of as much as $5 million per project is expected to accelerate the deployment of ViZn’s Z20 Energy Storage System, a zinc/iron redox flow battery.

LFC Capital’s program uses a traditional operating lease with ownership options after six and seven years. LFC also encourages the use of a follow-on loan as a way to conserve cash and maintain low monthly payments throughout an extended investment period.According to ViZn, the ideal project size is a 50 kW to 1,000 kW solar PV installation, requiring 80 kWh to 500 kWh of energy storage.

Not only are these advances in battery storage great news for utility customers who are looking for more independence from dirty coal-fired electricity and government-sanctioned monopoly utility companies, but for those in the developing world, it could be their first opportunity to have access to plentiful and high quality electricity.

A report from the London-based Climate Group and the Goldman Sachs Center for Environmental Markets titled titled The Business Case for Off-Grid Energy in India, concludes that storage will be an important component of solar home systems in the country, sales of which are expected to grow at 60 percent a year between now and 2018.

The report identifies solar and storage as a tool for lifting 360 million Indians living off-grid– around 50 percent of India’s rural population– out of energy poverty.

The need for energy storage is obvious if the solar market is to continue to grow. What is less obvious are the amazing new opportunities that will become possible for both residential customers and businesses, urban and rural residents, when storage prices reach a point where they become competitive with grid power.

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The gathering of family and friends to celebrate faith and community is a welcome break from the long, dark winter, no matter your cultural heritage. But many of us don’t really know the roots of some of our winter holiday traditions. For instance, in many cultures, the winter festival is known as a “Festival of Lights.” The tradition of decorating with candles or torches goes back to ancient times, when the long, dark nights were difficult and dangerous, especially in agricultural communities. At the time of the winter solstice (December in the Northern Hemisphere, June in the Southern Hemisphere), ancient people going back to Neolithic times gathered together on the shortest day of the year to light up the long night with the warmth of fire and fellowship.

Diwali candle photo:fest300.com

Dongzhi is the winter solstice feast in China and much of east Asia. Again, agricultural in origin, it is a time for gatherings to eat special foods that are not prepared at any other time of the year. In India, Malaysia, Sri Lanka and other Asian countries, Diwali is celebrated to mark historical events, tell stories and myths. The myths celebrate the victory of light over darkness, knowledge over ignorance, good over evil, hope over despair.

As you can see, many, if not all of our winter festivals are attached to the in the seasonal movement of the sun. Much like our agricultural forbearers who relied on the sun for their livelihoods, solar businesses see a natural slow-down at this time of the year. Systems in northern regions are at the lowest point in their daily production. In colder areas, performing installations become more challenging, and work slows down. And like the farmers of ancient times, it is a good time for solar businesses to reflect on the past year and plan for the next.

Solstice Solar Science 101

For those of us in the United States who live in the mid-latitudes, daylight ranges from about 15 hours around the summer solstice to around 9 hours close to the winter solstice. Just why is this?
As we know, the Earth’s axis is not perpendicular to the sun. It is tilted on its axis 23.5 degrees, so that it tilts as it spins, and that tilt changes seasonally in relation to the the sun. On the winter solstice, the northern hemisphere of the planet (everything north of the equator) will face directly away from the sun, putting the North Pole in complete darkness.

This means that the sun crosses the sky at its lowest trajectory as seen from the Northern Hemisphere, and therefor the Northern Hemisphere receives the fewest hours of daylight. Not only are there less hours of daylight, but the intensity of the light varies as well. For instance, In Chicago Illinois, the solar radiation in December is 2.7 kWh/m 2/day. In late June, it is 5.97 kWh/m 2/day. This mean weaker sunlight, and less hours of it.
What does this mean for a solar array? It means dramatically lower output. For instance, if we look at the PV Watts calculator at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s website, we will see that a 10kW photovoltaic solar array in Caribou, Maine, could be expected to produce over 1100 kWh per month near the time of the summer solstice, and only about 690 kWh per month in December. In Brownsville Texas, the same array will produce over 1200 kWh per month at the summer solstice, and 740 kWh in December.

Celebrate the Sun!

No matter your faith or cultural heritage, it is easy to see that the energy from the sun is essential to life on our planet. It’s no wonder that our ancestors chose the solstices as times for celebration. Just as farmers have used the sun to grow crops and harvest energy (in the form of calories) modern solar technology harvests the majority of its “crop” in the summer months. Now that winter is upon us and life has slowed down for a while, let’s take the time to be thankful for all that we have. Family, Friends… and the bountiful energy of the sun! Happy Solar Holidays!!

The sun’s path a the winter solstice photo:nasa.gov

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The Solar Power International conference turns 15 this year, and The American Solar Energy Society (ASES) held its 19th annual National Solar Tour in 2014, with fledgeling events like PV America offering new forums for solar pros to get together and see the latest that the industry has to offer. But what about the regional, state and local events? Some of these grassroots solar pow-wows have been around even longer than the “big boys,” and are still going strong. What I love about these more “homegrown” events is that they really foster a sense of community. They are also the first step for many solar newbies into the wonderful world of sustainable living.

Texas Renewable Roundup photo:digitaljournal.com

SolWest is Oregon’s long-running renewable energy fair, now going into its 17th year. SolWest takes place every June, where, according to their website, “Dozens of one-hour workshops help participants understand the basics of solar electricity, low-cost do-it-yourself solar projects, setting up wind, microhydro, or solar hot water systems, creating an off-grid paradise, constructing green buildings, raising small livestock, gardening, preserving food, and more.”

SolarFest in Vermont started in 1995 when a “group of friends with overlapping passions for music and renewable energy planned a big party.” In 2015, Vermont SolarFest will celebrate their 20th anniversary by staying true to their roots, celebrating music, art and renewable energy.

Way up North,the Renewable Energy Alaska Project (REAP) has hosted their annual Alaska Renewable Energy Fair for 10 years. They feature workshops on self-sufficiency topics, off-grid living, residential and commercial solar, and even sustainable 401K investing!

The grandaddy of all of the grassroots renewable energy gatherings is the Midwest Renewable Energy Associations Energy Fair. In 2015, they will celebrate 26 years of gathering in the woods of Wisconsin near Custer, just outside of Stevens Point. This event draws as many as 25,000 people each summer, and offers three days of non-stop classes, workshops, demonstrations and camaraderie. Every major manufacturer of solar equipment exhibits at the Energy Fair, but unlike the big industry trade shows, MREA’s event has the added attraction of locally brewed Wisconsin Beer and live music under the tall pines, not to mention the VERY Wisconsin tradition of a Sunday morning pancake breakfast, with a LIVE POLKA BAND!! You haven’t lived until you have done the “Chicken Dance” with a bunch of hung-over solar industry reps, jacked on fresh maple syrup and organic coffee!

photo:MREA

Next summer, if you are a solar professional, a homeowner exploring the possibilities of solar for your home, or a business owner looking into the opportunities to take advantage of the benefits of solar, take a look at the events close to home. Chances are, you will have a great time, learn a lot, meet some wonderful people, and come home at the end of the weekend with a new-found excitement for solar.

To find a local, state or regional solar, renewable energy or sustainable living event in your area, check the following resources:Home Power Magazine– Events page

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Currently, PV manufacturers use between 15 and 20 grams of silver in a new solar panel (by comparison, a new laptop contains approximately .75 grams of silver.) The Forbes article bases it’s projections on the assumption that 2.8 million ounces of silver are required to generate 1 GW of solar power, and that The incremental PV capacity addition in 2018 is expected to be between 39 and 69 GW. Are these assumptions realistic? And if so, will they actually translate into higher silver prices?

Will solar stop the decline in silver prices?

The reduction of silver use in PV panels is one of the holy grails of the solar industry. R&D teams have reduced usage of silver as much as two thirds in some new panels. Copper, nickel and tin are all showing promise as replacements for silver in PV panel busbars. A sudden turn in the global price of silver could be a major hit to PV manufacturers, or it may be the catalyst for a new wave of post-silver PV. In their 2012 report entitled ““Key Issues and Innovations in Photovoltaic Metallization,” Lux Research reports that the “Drive to reduce silver use is inevitable. Over the past decade, silver prices have risen six-fold to about $30/ounce, necessitating lower usage and other work-arounds. Applied Materials’ double-printing tool reduces silver usage by 30% relative to conventional screen printing and improves absolute cell efficiencies by 0.3% to 0.5%, offering the nearest term bang for the buck. But the technology roadmap won’t stop there.” Obviously, silver markets have been a roller coaster ride since the $30 an ounce numbers at the time of the Lux report to a current price of $17.44 (as of this writing, October 2014.) Now, PV manufacturers are happily chugging along, producing PV panels at under $1 per watt retail. Solar demand is growing rapidly, copper and tin based panel alternatives are back on the shelf and yet, silver prices remain in the basement, as compared to 2011, when silver was pushing $50 an ounce.

In addition to advances in technology that are lowering silver demands for solar panels, there are other factors that are affecting silver prices. These factors are far outside of the world of solar manufacturing. Precious metal prices have been highly volatile in recent years due to economic and regulatory factors having nothing to do with industrial demand. Fears about the market, currency fluctuations and an overall lackluster economy in the wake of the recession drove prices up, and, of course, what goes up must come down. Last year, demand for silver dropped and so did the price, but the low price has once again sparked demand, including the Indian jewelry silver market, which bought 17% of the silver in 2013. Despite the demand, silver prices remain low, leading speculators to scratch their heads. In many respects, the projections of PV manufacturing driving silver prices higher sounds a bit like wishful thinking.

At this point in time, the markets are a confusing place to be, and even the seasoned pros are struggling to make sense of the current directions in both the silver and the solar markets. With solar stocks being unjustly penalized by falling crude oil prices ( see “Solar Stocks Struggle to Decouple from Crude”) we are seeing powerhouse companies like industry giant SunPower down 23% and China’s upstart Trina Solar down 30%. Can silver fans really count on solar’s growth to spur a recovery in silver prices? At this point, it’s a stretch. And what about solar enthusiasts? It looks like a the grey clouds over silver and solar stocks may have a “silver lining” for them. For now, weak silver prices and lower solar stocks probably mean cheaper solar panels in the near term.

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The ATMs use the same amount of energy as a conventional light bulb, and can operate without air conditioning is heat up to 122 degrees Fahrenheit. Vortex’s solar-powered ATMs emit at least 18,500 kg of CO2 each year, when compared to conventional ATMs.

“Our ATM is a customized solution to rural India’s unique problems where power is scarce, accessibility is poor, crisp notes are rare and the language and dialects vary. Yet, it a product that is scalable across geographies,” Kannan Lakshminarayan, co-founder and chief technology officer at Vortex Engineering, told CNBC.

“I have always been motivated by the social impact of work on society. Local problems need local solutions. When you import solutions, you can at best be only second rate,” says Lakshminarayan.

Credit: Vortex Engineering

In addition to being powered on solar energy, the ATMs have a simplified, energy efficient design with fewer parts that could require repair.

Next year, Vortex Engineering will supply at least 5,000 ATMs across the country. At the moment there are about 150,000 ATMs in India – a country with a population of 1.2 billion.

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As part of it’s National Solar Mission (NSM), which aims to deploy 20,000 MW of solar by 2022, the Indian government is requiring that solar power developers must use solar panels and cells made in India.

The NSM has three Phases, now entering Phase II. The first Phase also had a domestic content requirement that the U.S. filed a complaint about. But in Phase II, the requirement to use Indian-made solar extends to thin film technology, which makes up the bulk of U.S. solar exports to India and was exempt in Phase I.

A rooftop solar installation in Gujarat. Credit: Azure Power

“These domestic content requirements discriminate against U.S. exports by requiring solar power developers to use Indian-manufactured equipment instead of U.S. equipment,” said United States Trade Representative Michael Froman.

“These unfair requirements are against WTO rules, and we are standing up today for the rights of American workers and businesses,” he added.

The U.S. Trade Representative also noted that protectionist measures like a domestic content requirement harm the expansion of solar worldwide, not just in the U.S. – a view reiterated by the U.S. solar lobby group.

“These types of ‘localization’ measures not only are an unfair barrier to U.S. exports, but also raise the cost of solar energy, hindering deployment of solar energy around the world, including in India,” said Froman.

“Localization barriers are a growing threat to U.S. solar exports and clearly violate WTO rules.  Over the past three years, the U.S. government has provided India every opportunity to remove restrictive and unfair marketplace requirements,” said Rhone Resch, president and CEO of the Solar Energy Industries Association.

“In the absence of any meaningful effort by India to find common ground, it’s now time for the WTO to finally resolve these long-festering issues.”

The U.S. has requested consultations, the first step in the WTO dispute settlement process. If after 60 days, India and the U.S. fail to resolve the issue through negotiations, the United States may ask the WTO to establish a dispute settlement panel.

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In August 2012, environmental science professor Michael Hoffmann and his colleagues won the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation’s Reinventing the Toilet Challenge, which aims to tackle the problem of sanitation for the 2.5 billion people around the world without access to sanitary toilets.

The Caltech team’s toilet can safely dispose of human waste for just five cents per user per day, without a septic system or an outside water source.

This toilet uses PV solar to power an electrochemical reactor, which breaks down water and human waste into fertilizer and hydrogen. The hydrogen can be stored as energy in fuel cells and the treated water can be reused to flush the toilet or for irrigation.

Graduate student Clement Cid with the Caltech team’s solar-powered toilet. Credit: Caltech

The team have used the Reinventing the Toilet Challenge grant money to keep developing the system, and now have support from one of the world’s leading plumbing and bathroom product companies. Kohler will provide the Caltech team with design expertise and plumbing products, as well as technical support when the system is trialled in India.

“I am thrilled to have the support of Kohler Co. as we move forward with the Gates Foundation to provide better sanitation options in the developing world,” says Michael Hoffmann, Caltech’s James Irvine Professor of Environmental Science.

“It is exciting and certainly an honor for us to work with the Caltech team, who are true pioneers of their time,” says Rob Zimmerman, Kohler Co. sustainability marketing manager.

“Kohler is known for pioneering innovative products and helping to advance technology, and through the Gates Foundation challenge, we get the opportunity to support others in their efforts to push traditional systems to a new level.”

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The shelters used for refugees often last as little as six months, due to weather impacts, despite the fact that usually stay in camps for several years.

The Refugee Housing Unit had been working to create better emergency shelters since 2008. “The Indian Ocean tsunami was still a fresh memory, and ‘Building back better’ was the motto among our humanitarian partners—meaning that humanitarian aid should not only contribute to saving lives, but also to creating sustainable communities after disasters,” said Johan Karlsson, Refugee Housing Unit Project Manager.

Credit: IKEA Foundation

They knew what kind of situations refugees faced, and when IKEA joined the project this year, the Swedish furniture manufacturer brought expertise in the how to make the houses easy to set up and transport.

The IKEA Foundation sought the backing of UNHCR, creating a groundbreaking partnership.

“By introducing us to the Refugee Housing Unit, the Foundation enabled the two organisations to share each other’s expertise and experience to create a better shelter,” said Olivier Delarue, of UNHCR’s Innovation initiative.

The prototype shelters are now being tested by refugee families in Ethiopia; the groups hope that after adjustments are made according to the testers’ feedback, they’ll be able to deploy the shelters widely.

The new shelters take just four hours to put together, are twice the size of current tents (fitting about five people) and are expected to last five years. And each shelter has a light and USB outlet that are powered by a thin-film solar sheeting.

“[T]he IKEA Foundation is looking for ways to create a better everyday life for poor families who have lost their homes and everything familiar to them,” said Per Heggenes, CEO of the IKEA Foundation.

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India’s national solar program, called the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission, aims to install 20 GW of PV capacity by 2022. That’s a 20-fold increase in a decade, since the country only reached 1 GW of capacity in 2012.

The National Solar Mission is part of the government’s efforts to fill a 9 percent gap in electricity supply that costs the country about one percent in economic growth annually.

While the U.S. supports increased installations of renewable energy globally, the U.S. government argues that the local content provisions of India’s Solar Mission – which require that a minimum portion of the solar cells and modules originate in India – goes against the World Trade Organization’s rules, and unfairly discriminates against U.S. PV cell and panel manufacturers.

“Let me be clear: the United States strongly supports the rapid deployment of solar energy around the world, including with India,” said U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk.

U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk. Credit: Xinhua

“Unfortunately, India’s discriminatory policies in its national solar program detract from that successful cooperation, raise the cost of clean energy, and undermine progress toward our shared objective,” continued Kirk.

Rhone Resch, president and CEO of the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), supported the move.

“The use of discriminatory localization barriers to bolster domestic interests is a growing trend within the global solar industry which must be reversed,” said Resch.

“We are hopeful that today’s action by the U.S. government will encourage not only India but other countries contemplating the imposition of localization barriers to focus instead on WTO-consistent government support measures.”

India, on the other hand, argues that the requirements of the National Solar Mission fit into a class of WTO rules that allows some projects to be exempt from non-discrimination rules.

Tarun Kapoor, joint secretary at the Ministry of New & Renewable Energy, told The Wall Street Journal that the Indian local content provision applied only to “a few projects totaling 350 megawatts.”

He further argued that India should be able to shield its PV manufacturers from competition from overseas manufacturers whose imports are unfairly priced.

India and the U.S. will now go through a 60 day “consultation” period; if the two countries cannot come to a resolution by then, the U.S. can then seek a formal panel review of the case.

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The two firms signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) agreeing to pool their resources to design, construct and maintain a 100 MW pipeline for solar power plants in the country, using First Solar’s advanced cadmium-telluride thin-film PV modules with its related system services and components.

“Indonesia has an increasingly urgent need for reliable, cost-effective energy resources. The agreement with PJB Services facilitates an ideal collaboration to provide Indonesia with the needed solution,” said Won Park, First Solar’s Senior Manager of Business Development and Sales in Southeast Asia.

“This MOU underscores First Solar’s belief that the Indonesian market has great potential as a sustainable market where solar power can be a meaningful part of the energy mix,” he added.

The MOU is First Solar’s first dip into the Indonesian market, and it is expected to meet the growing need for renewable energy in the country.

First Solar thin-film solar photovoltaic modules in a ground-mounted solar power plant. Photo: Business Wire

It is also a first for PJB Services – currently Indonesia’s leading service provider for operation and maintenance of conventional power plants – to be involved in the development of utility-scale PV power plants.

This endeavor represents First Solar’s continuous expansion outside the US, with an aim to extend its reach globally by focusing on the prime Asian markets. With the company benefitting from a $57.3 million loan granted by the Export-Import Bank, it has completed a similar agreement in India, opened a subsidiary company in Thailand and established a strong presence in China.

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The statistics, gathered by the DOE’s Energy Information Administration (EIA), show that US solar companies have shipped enough modules to generate 3.77 GW of power, an increase of over 1GW from the 2.64 GW shipped in 2010. This rise is indicative of a spike in PV demand at the end of 2011, before subsidies and tax breaks for PV were phased out.

According to the EIA, the growth was partly propelled by slumping prices of PV cells and modules caused by a competitive market, as well as a rush to ship modules and start projects before the expiration of the solar Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and the 1603 Treasury Program, which expired at the end of 2011.

But the EIA claims that employment in the sector has decreased by nearly 10 percent to just under 15,800 reflective of the tough global market.

A solar farm at Nellis Air Force Base in Nevada. Photo Credit: Suntech

Meanwhile, the European Photovoltaics Industry Association (EPIA) claims that global PV installations grew at a much faster rate than did US shipments over the same period – according to EPIA data, PV shipments increased by 76 percent, with a power output that swelled from 16.8 GW in 2010 to 29.7 GW in 2011.

US imports of PV modules reached 3.32 GW in 2011, with more than half coming from China, 21 percent from the Philippines, and 16 percent from Malaysia.

At the same time, exports amounted to only 0.79 GW, while Germany, the largest market for photovoltaics, accounted for one-fifth of exports, ahead of Canada, France, Italy and India.

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The high cost of photovoltaics has slowed down its widespread adoption in both the industrial and consumer markets. But the technology that RTI International is working on shows that it can be manufactured for less than 20 US dollars per square meter, 75 percent less than traditional photovoltaic cells.

The solar cells are created using low-cost materials and go through a manufacturing process that greatly reduces the cost of production, which includes capital infrastructure and energy expenditures associated with manufacturing.

The RTI solar cells are made up of inorganic semiconductor particles called colloidal quantum dots, which have a power conversion efficiency that rivals traditional solar cells at a fraction of the cost.

“Solar energy currently represents less than 1 percent of the global energy supply, and substantial reductions in material and production costs of photovoltaics are necessary to increase the use of solar power,” said Ethan Klem, research scientist and the project’s co-principal investigator, in the institute’s press release.

Photo Credit: RTI International

“This technology addresses each of the major cost drivers of photovoltaics and could go a long way in helping achieve that goal,” he added.

Results in demonstration tests show that the cells consistently provided a power conversion efficiency of more than 5 percent, which can compete with other emerging PV technologies.

Jay Lewis, senior research scientist at RTI and the other principal investigator of the project stated, “The efficiency of these devices is primarily limited by the amount of sunlight that is absorbed. There are many well-known techniques to enhance absorption, which suggests that the performance can increase substantially.”

Aside from being low-cost, the new RTI cells have a host of other key benefits that include higher infrared sensitivity, which allows a more efficient use of solar radiation for power generation.

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The company plans to increase output to 30 MW in 2012. Surana is just one of a spate of companies companies who have shown enthusiasm about the potential for PV in India.

Managing Director Narender Surana told Bloomberg that “the shortage in coal supply is a great opportunity for us as more and more people are looking at solar energy as a viable alternative.”

“As India’s energy needs rise, the shift towards solar power shall become more pronounced,” he said.

The Indian PV market has been in the spotlight after massive blackouts in July, which highlighted the 9 percent shortfall in electricity supply. According to some reports, this lack of power costs the country over 1 percent in economic growth each year.

But recently the government set a solar power generation target of 20 GW by 2022, a 20-fold increase in just a decade, and a manufacturing capacity target of 5 GW by 2020.

Photo Credit: Tata Solar

And while some of the country’s largest PV panel makers are struggling, other global firms see great potential.

Last week, First Solar, one of the world’s largest PV panel manufacturers, announced plans to build solar farms in India. The company aims to capture a minimum of 20 percent of the country’s PV market, and thinks that building what are essentially power plants, and selling the generated electricity to industrial and commercial customers.

The country currently has around 1,300 MW of solar capacity, which has been primarily through state-owned distributed utilities. But First Solar will sell power straight to businesses, enabling the provider to offer lower prices than the government utilities.

Tarun Kapoor, joint secretary of India’s renewable energy ministry, said last week that solar would reach grid parity by 2017. Considering the difficult worldwide market conditions, it will be interesting to see how India’s national solar strategy plays out.

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The Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report forecasts that electricity generated by renewable resources will increase by 1,840 TWh between 2011 and 2017, almost 60 percent more than the growth between 2006 and 2011.

The study analysed 15 markets for renewables, including hydropower, bioenergy, wind, solar and geothermal, and provided country projections for the coming five years.

The report predicts that two thirds of this growth in renewables will occur in non-OECD countries; China alone will account for nearly 40% of this increase, though much of the new deployments will be in the U.S., India, Germany and Brazil.

“Renewable energy is expanding rapidly as technologies mature, with deployment transitioning from support-driven markets to new and potentially more competitive segments in many countries,” said IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven.

Credit: International Energy Agency

Solar will make up 4.9 percent of all renewable electricity generation in 2017. Installed capacity of photovoltaics should grow at over 27 percent annually, bringing global capacity from 70 GW in 2011 up to 230 GW in 2017. This rise will be led by China, the U.S., Germany and Japan.

But the report notes that despite strong growth in residential, commercial and utility-scale PV installations, manufacturers will likely still see weak profits.

The IEA predicts that concentrating solar power capacity should rise from 2 GW in 2011 to 11 GW in 2017 – a slower increase than industry supporters had hoped, and according to the report, this disappointing growth is credited to price competition from PV and difficulties in obtaining permits and grid connections for the large CSP projects.

The positive predictions are based on technology cost decreases and supportive policies in a growing number of countries.

But while renewables are “a crucial pillar of the global energy mix,” according to van der Hoeven, continued expansion is contingent on economic policy, grid and system integration issues, and ease of access to financing.

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The market for high-concentrating photovoltaics (HCPV), also known as concentrated photovoltaics (CPV), will be worth $1.6 billion by 2017.

The June 26 report claims that the HCPV industry will face a 31 percent compound annual growth rate for the next five years, reaching installed capacity of just under 700 MW.

The technology uses mirrors and lenses to concentrate light from the sun onto super-efficient cells to produce electricity. But despite CPV’s efficiency, the technology has yet to catch on on a commercial scale – partly because solar technology has been most popular in areas with less direct sunlight.

“HCPV is only relevant in high direct normal irradiance environments,” said Lux Research Associate Ed Cahill. “It only focuses direct sunlight onto the solar cells.”

A close up of a SolFocus CPV panel. Credit: SolFocus

But the report suggests that CPV’s popularity will increase – thanks to the changing levels of government support for various solar technologies, as well as greater demand in places with high sunlight like Saudi Arabia and India.

“HCPV has had very little success installing commercial systems to date. However, as markets shift due to subsidy cuts from distributed installations in low‐DNI (direct normal irradiance) environments such as Germany, to large installations in high‐DNI environments such as India, expect HCPV to grow at a faster rate than competing technologies,” said Cahill.

The report found that costs for the technology are declining, and will become competitive with single‐axis‐tracked multi‐crystalline silicon in 2017 thanks to lower shipping and labor costs, besides economies of scale.

Finally, Lux Research predicts that solar cells will reach 50% efficiency in the coming decade.

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Applied Materials, a firm that produces PV manufacturing equipment, commissioned Ketchum and Ipsos to conduct its fourth annual solar energy survey. The Summer Solstice 2012 survey results were released on June 18.

The survey was conducted in China, India, Japan and the United States – with 1,000 participants from each country – and found consumers in these countries to be optimistic about the future of solar power. However, there were variations in the perceived cost of solar energy.

A solar farm at Nellis Air Force Base in Nevada. Photo Credit: Suntech

Across the four countries, 55 percent of respondents believed that solar power is less expensive than traditional energy sources. In India, 68 percent thought solar power was less expensive, while 51 percent of Japanese respondents thought solar power was more expensive.

“Solar panels now cost less than $1 per watt, which means more than 100 countries have achieved grid parity,” said Dr. Charlie Gay, president of Applied Materials’ Solar division.

“We have witnessed an explosion in global solar PV installations in the past year due to the dramatic and accelerated rate of cost reductions in the supply chain. This has resulted in significant decreases in end-market costs, and a continued focus on technology innovation will further drive down the total cost of solar electric power plants.”

Further, almost half of those surveyed thought the solar market would lead to job opportunities, while one quarter believed that growth in the solar industry would reduce the number of jobs.

“More than fifty percent of the jobs in the global solar power industry are found after the solar panel leaves the factory, such as construction teams, installers, sales people, designers, engineers, electricians, etc.,” said Cathy Boone, senior director for Energy Policy and Market Development at Applied Materials.

“Any country, city or community has the potential to directly benefit from the growth in the solar power industry with on-the-ground jobs if they are willing to make a commitment to replacing fossil fuels with solar.”

Over half of respondents in both China and India found the current rate of solar energy adoption in their respective countries to be too slow. According to Applied Materials, this response indicates that people realize that solar power can play a major role in a nation’s energy supply.

Despite the positive view of solar energy, respondents were not knowledgeable about the current state of solar. Survey participants were most likely to believe that the U.S. had the greatest installed solar capacity, with 26 percent of respondents choosing that country, whereas only 17 percent of those surveyed knew that Germany was in fact the leader in installed solar.

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The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) released the Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2012 report, based on data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, and the Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century (REN21) concurrently published their Renewables 2012 Global Status Report.

The reports found that investment in solar rose by 52 percent from 2010, up to $147 billion. This growth is credited to strong demand for PV installations in Germany, Italy, China and Britain as well as large concentrating solar thermal installations in Spain and the U.S.

“Despite the continuing economic crisis in some key traditional markets, and continuing political uncertainties, more renewable energy was installed last year than ever before,” said Dr. Mohamed El-Ashry, Chairman of REN21.

“Policy development and implementation were stimulated by the Fukushima nuclear catastrophe in Japan, along with improvements in renewable energy costs and technologies.”

“As a result, renewable energy is spreading to more countries and regions of the globe. Globally there are more than 5 million jobs in renewable energy industries, and the potential for job creation continues to be a main driver for renewable energy policies,” he continued.

Credit: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Further, the UNEP report found that residential PV is becoming increasingly cost competitive worldwide. The levelized cost of energy was below retail electricity prices in Denmark, Germany, Italy, Spain, Australia and Brazil. By 2015, the same should be the case in Turkey, France, Japan and parts of the U.S.

The reports did note the intensifying competition in the solar industry that led multiple companies to shut down or scale down production. This impact was amplified by the scaling down of government incentives in the U.S. and Europe. However, the authors consider this consolidation to be a sign that the industry is maturing.

“Right now we are seeing a lot of pain on the supply-side as prices are being compressed, but it is important to remember than installers, generators and consumers are benefiting. It is all part of the maturing of the sector,” said Michael Liebreich, Chief Executive of Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

“In 1903, the United States had over 500 car companies, most of which quickly fell by the wayside even as the automobile sector grew into an industrial juggernaut. A century ago, writing off the auto industry based on the failures of weaker firms would have been foolish. Today, the renewable energy sector is experiencing similar growing pains as the sector consolidates.”

On the whole, investment in renewables grew 17 percent from 2010, down from the 37 percent growth the year before. And according to the REN21 report, renewables now supply 16.7 percent of the world’s energy.

Other key findings include:

• renewable projects made up 44 percent of all new generating capacity added worldwide in 2011.

• China invested most in renewables, with a total of $52 billion.

• The United States invested $51 billion, up 57 percent from 2010, thanks to a rush to take advantage of expiring incentive programs.

• India saw the largest growth in investment, up 62 percent to $12 billion.

• solar thermal water heaters are used by over 200 million households and other buildings globally.

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This news comes from Ernst & Young’s most recent quarterly Country Attractiveness Indices report. The report ranks the top 40 countries in terms of national renewable energy markets, renewable energy infrastructures and suitability for individual technologies.

Though the top five countries in the ranking remain unchanged, all of them saw losses in Q1 2012. The report highlights the following drivers for dampening of cleantech investment:

• competition from Asia
• decreasing prices of carbon
• the Eurozone debt crisis and reduced policy support in European markets
• tax credit uncertainty and a shale gas boom in the US.

“The growth of China’s wind sector continues to be stifled by insufficient access to the grid, while a boom-bust scenario appears to have returned to the U.S. as a result of uncertainty over the expiry of key stimulus programs,” says Gil Forer, Ernst & Young’s global cleantech leader.

“In Germany and Italy, tariff cuts and grid challenges have reduced short-term attractiveness, while the end of a key tax break incentive in India is likely to dampen wind sector growth through 2012.

However, the investment gap between developed and developing countries has shrunk, thanks to an increase in incentives and national energy strategies in the latter.

“The news is more positive in other parts of the index, with several countries – including Mexico and Chile – announcing new national targets for clean energy generation or reaffirming government support through incentive schemes,” adds Forer.

Around US$21.7b worth of renewable energy transactions were completed globally in Q1 2012, up 41 percent on the previous quarter. But it was the worst quarter on record since Q2 2009 for IPOs, with around US$14.3b raised from 157 issues, down by 69 percent from Q1 2011.

New asset finance fell by 30 percent from the last quarter, thanks to a lack of political support and insufficient liquidity in the project financing market.

Credit: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

For the solar market specifically, though incentive cuts in Germany and Italy will dampen demand growth in 2012 and 2013, Ernst & Young expects to see other markets expand thanks to the decline in module prices.

The report notes particular difficulties for thin-film manufacturers; these firms were taking off just as the price of crystalline silicon plummeted, making thin-film less attractive.

Having said that, investors are looking favorably at solar projects, seeing them as less risky than in the past.

“The next 12 months are likely to be characterized by further consolidation in the solar and wind supply chain, with a large number of outbound deals expected from Asia,” says Ben Warren, Ernst & Young’s energy and environmental finance leader.

“Access to capital will remain the single biggest differentiator for companies in both the technology and infrastructure markets for the foreseeable future.”

Despite the negative outlook for the short- to medium-term, “as more mature technologies move ever closer to grid parity with traditional energy sources, there is good reason for longer term optimism for the global renewable energy sector,” says the report.

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The report, titled “Solar power: Darkest before dawn,” predicts that worldwide installed PV capacity will increase to 400-600 GW by 2020 and that the cost of a commercial scale P system could fall by 40 percent by 2015 and another 30 percent by 2020.

Credit: McKinsey

McKinsey cites the following market segments as promising most growth in the coming ten to twenty years:

• off-grid demand could reach 15 to 20 GW by 2020.
• residential and commercial customers in sunny areas where the price of electricity rises at times of peak demand (e.g. California, Hawaii, Italy, Spain), and areas with moderate sun conditions but high retail electricity prices (e.g. parts of Europe and the United States, Japan, Canada, parts of Latin America).
• isolated grids that mainly power remote villages in Africa, India, Southeast Asia, and parts of the Middle East.
• peak capacity in growth markets where substantial new electric-power infrastructure is set to be built (India, Brazil, the Middle East, and China) or in countries that rely on imports of liquefied natural gas (Japan).
• new, large-scale power plants, most likely in emerging markets that are expanding infrastructure and where the cost of solar will be compared with the cost of a new coal, natural-gas, or nuclear plant.

In developed countries, distributed rooftop generation will likely be the primary source of growth, whereas distributed ground-mount generation will be dominant in developing countries.

The report emphasizes that the underlying costs of PV will drop by up to 10 percent annually until 2020, and despite reduced government subsidies, manufacturing capacity will double over the next few years.

The current market over supply will continue in the short run, but McKinsey says these are “natural growing pains, not death throes.” Instead, the solar industry is “entering a period of maturation” that will lead to more stable and expansive growth after 2015.

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The Colorado-based Abound Solar manufactures cadmium telluride thin-film PV modules for commercial and utility scale installations. The current modules convert 10.5 percent of available sunlight to electricity, but the recently approved second generation modules have an efficiency of 12.5 percent.

Abound says it is stopping production of the original product in order to “accelerate the manufacturing process and equipment changes needed” for the new product.

The company had a $400 million loan guarantee from the DOE through the same program that provided Solyndra’s loan guarantee. Abound has only taken out $70 million in loans under the guarantee.

Job Cuts

The halt in production will “temporarily” eliminate 180 full-time positions at Abound’s Colorado facility, which opened in 2009. The Longmont Times-Call reports that the company also fired 100 temporary workers. Originally with about 400 employees, these cuts have reduced the company’s staff by 70 percent.

An employee at Abound Solar's Longmont, Colorado facility. Photo Credit: Abound Solar

Abound says it anticipates that once the next phase has begun, many of these jobs will return. The company expects to achieve mass production of the new product by the end of 2012.

“While this is a difficult move with regards to temporarily reducing our workforce, we know that accelerating the introduction of our next generation module will bring significant benefits to our customers and allow us to create even more jobs in the future,” said Craig Witsoe, president and CEO of Abound Solar.

When the loan guarantee was finalized, Abound had projected it would create 1,200 jobs total in Indiana and Colorado, as well as another 1,600 supply chain jobs around the country. The company says their plans to build a facility in Tipton, Indiana still stands, but it is unclear when that will occur.

Stiff Competition

The firm is but another victim of Chinese competitors’ low prices. “Abound is facing the same headwinds — cheap crystalline silicon from China — that made Solyndra a political football,” Pavel Molchanov, an analyst at Raymond James & Associates Inc., told Bloomberg.

“I think they made the right decision to conserve cash and focus on improving efficiency so they can ramp up when they’re ready,” Molchanov continued.

“The way the solar market is today, everything everyone is making they’re selling below cost,” Steve Abely, Abound’s chief financial officer, told the Wall Street Journal. “Not just small guys like us—substantial Chinese manufacturers are selling below cost. They can’t do it for a sustainable period, and we can’t either.”

A division of the DOE found that Chinese PV firms are actually at a cost disadvantage compared to U.S. firms, supporting the view that the Chinese government provides illegal subsidies. This Friday, the Commerce Department is due to announce whether Chinese PV products will be hit with import duties.

Witsoe, though, is confident that this change in strategy will allow Abound Solar to not only survive but also prosper. “By focusing our resources to accelerate scale-up of our next generation high efficiency technology, we will sustainably lower total system costs for our customers, increase our own profitability and grow U.S. jobs and energy security,” he said.

Continued DOE Support

This news comes in the midst of the Congressional investigation into Solyndra’s DOE loan guarantee, and Republicans will likely paint Abound’s case as another failed government attempt to “pick winners and losers” in energy innovation. But the administration says it still supports Abound Solar, despite the change of plan.

“While the challenges facing solar manufacturers have been widely reported, we continue to believe that supporting innovative companies like this is important to ensuring our nation has the ability to compete for the clean energy jobs of tomorrow,” said Damien LaVera, an Energy Department spokesman.

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